11
Jardin D'erable
7yo Gelding · 0-0 · Draw 11
Vincennes · Prix Kolga - Attele · 1m 2f 96y
#11
Rank
Odds
39/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 6
Recent avg: C10.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Divonne Les Bains | 7 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-16 | Enghien | 18 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Enghien | 7 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Enghien | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | La Capelle | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Vincennes | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 1613% of fieldRange 7-16 · tight 60/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength5%
Delivery trend -3.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 14th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/04/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 08/05/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 63% | +0.05 |
| 19/05/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 63% | +0.36 |
| 26/05/2026 | 10th | 4/1 | 79% | 36% | -0.43 |
| 14/06/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 25/06/2026 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |
| 09/07/2026 | 2nd | 28/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |
| 16/07/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 46% | -0.01 |
| 20/08/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |