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Diomed Spirit

6yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 55

Brighton · Teenage Cancer Trust Handicap · 5f 60y

#3

Rank

Odds

18/1

Win Prob

6%

Place Prob

15%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has a much lower turf mark and took a big step back in the right direction on first outing for this yard when second of 13 at Windsor (5f, firm) just under 6 weeks ago, finding only one revitalised by a stable switch too strong. Obvious claims with a repeat.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength79%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Chelmsford City 11/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 78 · 5f Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/12/2025 · OR 78 par11/124OR 784 @ Lingfield 12/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 78 · 5f6y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/01/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Lingfield 31/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 78 · 5f6y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/01/2026 · OR 78 par31/014OR 784 @ Lingfield 10/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 77 · 5f6y Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark10/02/2026 · OR 77 par4 @ Southwell 09/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 76 · 4f214y Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark09/04/2026 · OR 76 par9/044OR 765 @ Wolverhampton 21/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 74 · 5f21y Std 135 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark21/04/2026 · OR 74 par5 @ Bath 04/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 57 · 5f10y Gd 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/05/2026 · OR 57 par4/055OR 575 @ Bath 26/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 56 · 5f10y Fm 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/05/2026 · OR 56 par6 @ Windsor 29/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 54 · 5f21y GF 132 · beat its mark29/06/2026 · OR 54 par29/066OR 54projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-29Windsor62nd2nd0
2026-05-26Bath56th5th+1
2026-05-04Bath53rd2nd+1
2026-04-21Wolverhampton56th5th+1
2026-04-09Southwell46th4th+2
2026-02-10Lingfield45th3rd+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/1210/024/0529/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength46%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/12/20255th9/153%43%-0.10
12/01/20263rd18/581%67%-0.14
31/01/20265th13/266%43%-0.23
10/02/20265th9/153%0%-0.53
09/04/20266th20/10%0%0.00
21/04/20266th14/126%17%-0.10
04/05/20263rd18/15%60%+0.55
26/05/20266th11/142%0%-0.42
29/06/20262nd18/15%92%+0.86