15:10 · Thirsk

William Hill, Market Place, Thirsk Handicap (GBBPlus Race)

1m 4f 8yGoing TBCClass 34YO plusTURFHandicap6 runners
Ordered by projected finish
1
Market FavTop Pick1
OR 9111/8
Master Vintner silks

Mr R A Pegum And Mr Paul Anthony Henry

4yo Gelding · 9-9

Mastercraftsman - Tropical Mist (Marju)

Edward Greatrex0/2R M Beckett80%
110722
5.0
1st Blinkers +3

Made a promising debut in Ireland before winning consecutive novices at Goodwood/Lingfield last autumn. Advanced his form this season with back-to-back seconds at Kempton. Type to benefit from first-time blinkers (went in snatches latest) and isn't fully exposed returning to turf. Interesting.

Class Advantage

2/09 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a2/0923/09 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a8/11 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above8/11 · mark par15/05 · C3 · finish vs mark below15/05 · mark par27/05 · C3 · finish vs mark above27/05 · mark par2/07 · C3 · finish vs mark above2/07 · mark par2/07projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Class readAT LEVEL
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength22%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 4f 8y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 10/11 | Expected: 95%Pos 1 · SP 10/11 | Actual: 100%2/09Pos 1 · SP 4/11 | Expected: 98%Pos 1 · SP 4/11 | Actual: 100%Pos 13 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 13 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 43%8/11Pos 7 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 7 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 14%Pos 2 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 2 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 92%27/05Pos 2 · SP 11/8 | Expected: 93%Pos 2 · SP 11/8 | Actual: 83%2/07
Projected finish1st of 6
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength49%
ExpectedActualTrend
3
4
OR 8711/1
Wahdan silks

Aberdeen Park & Partner

5yo Gelding · 9-5

Siyouni - Lamorlaye (Danehill Dancer)

D Allan60%0/1T D Easterby60%
308663
4.0Class ↓3
Cheek pieces

One-time useful winner in France. Drew a blank for Joseph O'Brien last year. Has been shaping up fairly well for new connections following a gelding operation, latterly finishing 11 lengths third behind a smart one at York. Entitled to give a good account in refitted cheekpieces.

Class Advantage

8/08 · C10 · finish vs mark below8/08 · mark par8/0826/09 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark above26/09 · mark par12/06 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above12/06 · mark par27/06 · C3 · finish vs mark above27/06 · mark par10/07 · C3 · finish vs mark above10/07 · mark par25/07 · C3 · finish vs mark above25/07 · mark par25/07projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength48%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 4f 8y · 17%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 3 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 0%8/08Pos 11 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 11 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 17%Pos 8 · SP 150/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 150/1 | Actual: 53%12/06Pos 6 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 62%Pos 6 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 29%10/07Pos 3 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 3 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 78%25/07
Projected finish2nd of 6
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength91%
ExpectedActualTrend
5
3
OR 8312/1
Wanderlust silks

Gonzales And Michael Watt

4yo Gelding · 9-1

Churchill - Life Of The Party (Siyouni)

A Mullen70%I Jardine
531443
6.0Going 7.0

Landed the odds on final start for Andre Fabre last autumn. Made solid start for new connections (changed hands for 44,000 gns) hitting the frame all 3 handicap starts over 1¼m. Needs more but could be the pace angle stepping back up in trip.

Class Advantage

12/08 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a12/082/09 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a22/09 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a7/05 · C3 · finish vs mark above7/05 · mark par1/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above1/06 · mark par25/06 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above25/06 · mark par25/06projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Class readAT LEVEL
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength17%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 4f 8y · 17%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 15/8 | Expected: 90%Pos 5 · SP 15/8 | Actual: 69%12/08Pos 3 · SP 6/4 | Expected: 92%Pos 3 · SP 6/4 | Actual: 78%Pos 1 · SP 1/4 | Expected: 99%Pos 1 · SP 1/4 | Actual: 100%22/09Pos 4 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 63%Pos 4 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 4 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 50%1/06Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 75%25/06
Projected finish3rd of 6
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength68%
ExpectedActualTrend
4
Value2
OR 855/1
Sudu silks

Exors Of The Late John Connolly

4yo Gelding · 9-3

Teofilo - Special Guest (Dubawi)

Ray Dawson60%1/1R Varian70%
545418
5.0
1st Hood +1

Strong traveller who endured a luckless Newbury reappearance/handicap debut last season. Gained compensation with a wide-margin success at Epsom before a forgivable effort at Goodwood. This could be another falsely-run race, but he could still be worth chancing in first-time hood on return.

Class Advantage

25/10 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a25/103/12 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a22/02 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a12/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above12/06 · mark par2/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above2/07 · mark par30/07 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above30/07 · mark par30/07projClass-projected finish: 4th of 6
Class readAT LEVEL
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength23%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 4f 8y · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 5 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 64%25/10Pos 4 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 4 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 67%Pos 5 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 5 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 50%22/02Pos 4 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 4 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 73%Pos 1 · SP 4/5 | Expected: 96%Pos 1 · SP 4/5 | Actual: 100%2/07Pos 8 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 8 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 13%30/07
Projected finish4th of 6
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength36%
ExpectedActualTrend
6
6
OR 7810/1
Golden West silks

Reality Partnerships Xx

5yo Gelding · 8-10

Masar - Gwendolyn (Invincible Spirit)

D Fentiman0/1T D Easterby
878429
4.0Class ↓2

Hasn't won since going 2-2 as a juvenile (reflected in his mark). Shaped well on first couple of starts for Tim Easterby following a 21-month absence before he was left poorly placed at York last time. Wahdan probably the stable's leading hope, though.

Class Advantage

1/06 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above1/06 · mark par1/0617/08 · C3 · finish vs mark below17/08 · mark par12/09 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above12/09 · mark par13/06 · C3 · finish vs mark above13/06 · mark par24/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above24/06 · mark par10/07 · C4 · finish vs mark below10/07 · mark par10/07projClass-projected finish: 6th of 6
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength47%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 4f 8y · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 8 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 8 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 36%1/06Pos 7 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 7 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 14%Pos 8 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 22%12/09Pos 4 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 67%Pos 2 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 2 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 89%24/06Pos 9 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 9 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 11%10/07
Projected finish5th of 6
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength71%
ExpectedActualTrend
2
5
OR 8880/1
Majestic silks

Mr M Channon

8yo Gelding · 9-6

Conduit - Grevillea (Admiralofthefleet)

Connor Beasley0/2J Channon
807420
4.0

Veteran landed first success since the 2022 Cambridgeshire when successful in Bahrain in January 2025. Best recent effort when runner-up in this grade at Windsor in June before finding things too competitive at Newmarket subsequently. This looks more realistic.

Class Advantage

25/10 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark below25/10 · mark par25/108/11 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark below8/11 · mark par2/05 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above2/05 · mark par15/05 · C3 · finish vs mark above15/05 · mark par27/06 · C3 · finish vs mark above27/06 · mark par10/07 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark below10/07 · mark par10/07projClass-projected finish: 5th of 6
Class readCLASS EDGE
AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move
Strength50%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 4f 8y · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 8 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 22%25/10Pos 19 · SP 100/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 19 · SP 100/1 | Actual: 14%Pos 7 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 7 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 25%2/05Pos 4 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 4 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 50%Pos 2 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 2 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 83%27/06Pos 10 · SP 80/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 10 · SP 80/1 | Actual: 0%10/07
Projected finish6th of 6
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend