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3

Dreambird Dolly

4yo Filly · 9-8 · OR 54

Brighton · Teenage Cancer Trust Handicap · 5f 60y

#1

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

58%

Place Prob

45%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Took advantage of a drop in grade when making all in classified event at Leicester (5f, good) in June. Always behind at Windsor next time, but back on song the last twice with a couple of runner-up efforts, most recently in 8-runner event at Salisbury (5f, good) last month. In the mix.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength36%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Brighton 15/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 46 · 5f60y Sft 118 · beat its mark15/09/2025 · OR 46 par15/096OR 466 @ Brighton 16/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 45 · 5f60y Goo 126 · beat its mark16/10/2025 · OR 45 par6 @ Bath 30/10/2025 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 45 · 5f10y Hvy 117 · beat its mark30/10/2025 · OR 45 par30/106OR 456 @ Windsor 07/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 45 · 6f12y Goo 116 · beat its mark07/05/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Brighton 29/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 45 · 5f60y Goo 128 · beat its mark29/05/2026 · OR 45 par29/056OR 456 @ Leicester 08/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 48 · 5f Goo 135 · beat its mark08/06/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Windsor 22/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 53 · 5f21y GF 128 · beat its mark22/06/2026 · OR 53 par22/066OR 536 @ Leicester 14/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 53 · 5f GF 131 · beat its mark14/07/2026 · OR 53 par6 @ Salisbury 21/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 53 · 5f Goo 133 · beat its mark21/07/2026 · OR 53 par21/076OR 53projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-21Salisbury62nd2nd0
2026-07-14Leicester62nd2nd0
2026-06-22Windsor610th10th0
2026-06-08Leicester61st1st0
2026-05-29Brighton62nd2nd0
2026-05-07Windsor68th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/097/0522/0621/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength67%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/09/20256th10/147%17%-0.31
16/10/20255th12/137%33%-0.04
30/10/202511th50/10%0%0.00
07/05/20268th28/10%0%0.00
29/05/20262nd12/137%88%+0.51
08/06/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
22/06/202610th9/153%18%-0.34
14/07/20262nd3/184%80%-0.04
21/07/20262nd12/137%86%+0.49