1
Recon Mission
10yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 55
Brighton · Teenage Cancer Trust Handicap · 5f 60y
#4
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength59%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-22 | Brighton | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Brighton | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-18 | Lingfield | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-09-29 | Brighton | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-23 | Lingfield | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-08 | Lingfield | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 7
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength69%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07/2025 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 20% | -0.43 |
| 06/08/2025 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 03/09/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 71% | +0.14 |
| 08/09/2025 | 7th | 5/2 | 87% | 25% | -0.62 |
| 23/09/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 78% | -0.01 |
| 29/09/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 86% | +0.28 |
| 18/05/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 09/06/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 22/06/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 20% | -0.64 |