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6

Reporter

4yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 50

Brighton · Teenage Cancer Trust Handicap · 5f 60y

#5

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Winner at Windsor (5f, good to firm) last summer. Below par in 2 comeback outings in the spring and shaped as if needing the run on first start for new connections at Salisbury (5f, good) last month. Best watched.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength26%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Chepstow 17/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 63 · 5f16y Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/07/2025 · OR 63 par17/075OR 636 @ Brighton 06/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 63 · 5f60y Goo 133 · beat its mark06/08/2025 · OR 63 par6 @ Chepstow 25/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 61 · 5f16y Goo 134 · beat its mark25/08/2025 · OR 61 par25/086OR 616 @ Lingfield 08/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 61 · 6f1y Std 132 · beat its mark08/09/2025 · OR 61 par6 @ Lingfield 23/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 60 · 5f6y Std 134 · below its mark23/09/2025 · OR 60 par23/096OR 606 @ Brighton 29/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 60 · 5f60y Goo 134 · beat its mark29/09/2025 · OR 60 par6 @ Lingfield 20/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 58 · 5f6y Std 134 · beat its mark20/03/2026 · OR 58 par20/036OR 586 @ Bath 05/04/2026 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 57 · 5f10y Goo 127 · below its mark05/04/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Salisbury 21/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 54 · 5f Goo 134 · beat its mark21/07/2026 · OR 54 par21/076OR 54projClass-projected finish: 7th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-21Salisbury67th7th0
2026-04-05Bath613th13th0
2026-03-20Lingfield66th6th0
2025-09-29Brighton64th4th0
2025-09-23Lingfield68th8th0
2025-09-08Lingfield64th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/078/0920/0321/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength2%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/07/20254th9/276%40%-0.36
06/08/20255th28/10%60%+0.60
25/08/20253rd12/137%67%+0.30
08/09/20254th14/126%63%+0.36
23/09/20258th6/168%22%-0.46
29/09/20254th11/142%57%+0.15
20/03/20266th12/137%38%+0.01
05/04/202613th18/15%0%-0.05
21/07/20267th25/10%14%+0.14