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5

Washington Heir

4yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 50

Brighton · Teenage Cancer Trust Handicap · 5f 60y

#2

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

35%

Place Prob

35%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Found his level in this grade the last twice, winning over C&D in June and then third of 11 here (6f, good) later that month. Comes here with fewer questions to answer than most of these and holds solid place claims returned to a handicap.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength35%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Wolverhampton 16/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 6f20y Std 131 · HIGHER CLASS16/0955 @ Lingfield 14/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR - · 6f1y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS5 @ Wolverhampton 28/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR - · 6f20y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS28/1056 @ Wolverhampton 07/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 46 · 5f21y Std 128 · beat its mark07/03/2026 · OR 46 par6 @ Wolverhampton 24/03/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 45 · 5f21y Std 126 · beat its mark24/03/2026 · OR 45 par24/036OR 456 @ Bath 22/05/2026 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR 45 · 5f160y Goo 126 · beat its mark22/05/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Brighton 09/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 42 · 5f60y Gd 135 · beat its mark09/06/2026 · OR 42 par9/066OR 426 @ Brighton 30/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 50 · 5f215y GF 135 · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 50 par30/066OR 50projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-30Brighton63rd3rd0
2026-06-09Brighton61st1st0
2026-05-22Bath611th11th0
2026-03-24Wolverhampton69th9th0
2026-03-07Wolverhampton65th5th0
2025-10-28Wolverhampton55th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/097/039/0630/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/09/20255th125/10%33%+0.33
14/10/20253rd100/10%50%+0.50
28/10/20255th125/10%0%0.00
07/03/20265th33/10%33%+0.33
24/03/20269th28/10%0%0.00
22/05/202611th28/10%17%+0.17
09/06/20261st16/116%100%+0.84
30/06/20263rd3/184%80%-0.04