6
Thundering Breeze
5yo Mare · 9-9 · OR 47
Brighton · JenningsBet UK's Largest Independent Bookmaker Classified Stakes · 1m 1f 207y
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength34%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-12 | Lingfield | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-21 | Lingfield | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-01-04 | Southwell | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-03 | Lingfield | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-27 | Lingfield | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-16 | Brighton | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength36%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 70% | +0.23 |
| 02/09/2025 | 10th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |
| 23/09/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 16/10/2025 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 27/10/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 03/12/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 04/01/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 90% | +0.08 |
| 21/01/2026 | 7th | 5/2 | 87% | 33% | -0.54 |
| 12/02/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 63% | +0.15 |