5
Bona Fortuna
5yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 76
Brighton · Harry Bloom Memorial 'Brighton Bullet' Handicap · 5f 215y
#2
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
18%
Rank
#2
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength42%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-02 | Nottingham | 2 | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2025-08-15 | Epsom Downs | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-07-26 | York | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-07-05 | Nottingham | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-06-18 | Hamilton | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-05-31 | York | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 10
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength57%
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 3rd of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06/2024 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 22/07/2024 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 29/08/2024 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 73% | +0.08 |
| 31/05/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 79% | +0.05 |
| 18/06/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |
| 05/07/2025 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 75% | -0.17 |
| 26/07/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 94% | +0.37 |
| 15/08/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 02/10/2025 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 62% | +0.01 |