2
Marcellinus
3yo Gelding · 9-13 · OR 82
Brighton · Harry Bloom Memorial 'Brighton Bullet' Handicap · 5f 215y
#5
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 2.4)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Windsor | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Windsor | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Hamilton | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Bath | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-20 | Southwell | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-10-28 | Leicester | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 10
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength59%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06/2025 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 28/10/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 20/11/2025 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 88% | -0.06 |
| 17/04/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 17/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 92% | +0.07 |
| 15/06/2026 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 90% | -0.04 |
| 27/06/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 67% | -0.23 |