IvyArcIvyArc
8

U S S Charleston

3yo Colt · 9-6 · OR 75

Brighton · Harry Bloom Memorial 'Brighton Bullet' Handicap · 5f 215y

#9

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Opened turf account at Yarmouth in May and belied big odds to bounce back to form after just 6 days off when second of 18 at Goodwood (5f, good to firm) last week. Takes a drop in class here and has a big chance if able to back that up (hasn't been the most consistent).

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength51%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Lingfield 12/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 73 · 5f6y Std 133 · beat its mark12/02/2026 · OR 73 par12/025OR 732 @ Lingfield 27/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 71 · 6f1y Std 114 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/02/2026 · OR 71 par5 @ Wolverhampton 13/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 72 · 5f21y Std 132 · beat its mark13/03/2026 · OR 72 par13/035OR 724 @ Lingfield 03/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 72 · 6f1y Std 127 · beat its mark03/04/2026 · OR 72 par5 @ Yarmouth 13/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 71 · 5f42y Sft 133 · beat its mark13/05/2026 · OR 71 par13/055OR 712 @ Epsom Downs 05/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 16 · OR 78 · 5f Gd 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 78 par3 @ Newmarket 10/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 78 · 5f GF 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 78 par10/073OR 784 @ York 24/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 77 · 5f89y Goo 132 · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 77 par3 @ Goodwood 30/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 18 · OR 77 · 5f Goo 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/07/2026 · OR 77 par30/073OR 77projClass-projected finish: 4th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-30Goodwood32nd1st+1
2026-07-24York45th5th0
2026-07-10Newmarket310th9th+1
2026-06-05Epsom Downs25th3rd+2
2026-05-13Yarmouth51st2nd−1
2026-04-03Lingfield49th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/023/0410/0730/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength78%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/02/20263rd11/271%67%-0.04
27/02/20266th33/10%55%+0.55
13/03/20263rd9/153%75%+0.22
03/04/20269th12/137%27%-0.10
13/05/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
05/06/20265th18/15%73%+0.68
10/07/202610th20/10%18%+0.18
24/07/20265th25/10%64%+0.64
30/07/20262nd50/10%94%+0.94