IvyArcIvyArc
5

Manhattan Chute

4yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 52

Brighton · Bet In Over 200 Shops Nationwide With JenningsBet Handicap · 5f 215y

#5

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Sprung a 50/1 surprise at Lingfield (5f) in January and having lost his way since, proved a different proposition having been well backed when landing a classified event at Leicester (6f, good to firm) last month. Back in a handicap but not sure to be in the same mood here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength39%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 7.2)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Lingfield 10/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 62 · 5f6y Std 127 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark10/01/2026 · OR 62 par10/015OR 626 @ Lingfield 21/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 59 · 5f6y Std 134 · beat its mark21/01/2026 · OR 59 par4 @ Lingfield 07/02/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 61 · 6f1y Std 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/02/2026 · OR 61 par7/024OR 615 @ Lingfield 14/02/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 60 · 5f6y Std 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/02/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Lingfield 25/02/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 59 · 5f6y Std 134 · below its mark25/02/2026 · OR 59 par25/026OR 595 @ Chelmsford City 26/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 57 · 5f Std 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/03/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Windsor 07/05/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 52 · 5f21y Goo 127 · below its mark07/05/2026 · OR 52 par7/056OR 526 @ Brighton 07/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 50 · 5f215y GF 135 · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Leicester 14/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 50 · 6f GF 135 · beat its mark14/07/2026 · OR 50 par14/076OR 50projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-14Leicester61st1st0
2026-07-07Brighton69th9th0
2026-05-07Windsor611th11th0
2026-03-26Chelmsford City57th6th+1
2026-02-25Lingfield69th9th0
2026-02-14Lingfield59th8th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/0114/027/0514/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength77%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/01/20267th25/10%0%0.00
21/01/20261st50/10%100%+1.00
07/02/20268th40/10%0%0.00
14/02/20269th66/10%0%0.00
25/02/20269th40/10%0%0.00
26/03/20267th50/10%0%0.00
07/05/202611th50/10%0%0.00
07/07/20269th22/10%20%+0.20
14/07/20261st11/271%100%+0.29