6
Arvana Belle
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 45
Brighton · Bet Responsibly With JenningsBet Handicap · 6f 210y
#2
Rank
Odds
17/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#2
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Salisbury | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Leicester | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Brighton | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Windsor | 6 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Bath | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-09-29 | Brighton | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength23%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08/2025 | 10th | 200/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 31/08/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 15/09/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 29/09/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 60% | -0.24 |
| 27/04/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 18/05/2026 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 9% | -0.07 |
| 09/06/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 14/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 60% | +0.18 |
| 25/07/2026 | 5th | 17/2 | 55% | 20% | -0.35 |