1
Fareedhat El Izz (A)
6yo Mare · 9-7
Brighton · Al Nujaifi Racing Series Fillies & Mares Conditions Stakes - Arab Race · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
6/4
Win Prob
94%
Place Prob
80%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength73%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.6
Today:
Class gap: +1.9
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-04 | Lingfield | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-06-28 | Windsor | ? | 1st | -3th | +4 |
| 2024-09-02 | Chepstow | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2024-06-29 | Windsor | ? | 2nd | -3th | +4 |
| 2024-06-13 | Newbury | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2024-05-01 | Dax | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 5
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength56%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/04/2024 | 14th | 25/1 | 0% | 24% | +0.24 |
| 01/05/2024 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 43% | -0.20 |
| 13/06/2024 | 1st | 17/2 | 55% | 100% | +0.45 |
| 29/06/2024 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 02/09/2024 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |
| 28/06/2025 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 04/08/2025 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 60% | -0.32 |