5
Ragtime Scribble
4yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 71
Charles Town · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
75%
Place Prob
59%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength52%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Charles Town | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-14 | Charles Town | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2025-11-09 | Charles Town | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 7
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength73%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |
| 10/10/2025 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 60% | -0.32 |
| 23/10/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 09/11/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 14/03/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 25/04/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 20% | -0.46 |
| 09/05/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 13/06/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 12/07/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 57% | -0.27 |