4
Return Fire
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 54
Charles Town · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Delaware Park | ? | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-22 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength29%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/11/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 09/01/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 05/02/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 17% | -0.60 |
| 22/02/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 04/04/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 26/04/2026 | 2nd | 40/1 | 0% | 91% | +0.91 |
| 23/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 80% | +0.33 |
| 05/06/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 55% | -0.03 |
| 01/08/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |