6
Speedy Sammy
3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 69
Charles Town · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength24%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Charles Town | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Charles Town | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-14 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-04-11 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-03-19 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength74%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/01/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 13/02/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 22/02/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 86% | +0.02 |
| 19/03/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 71% | -0.10 |
| 11/04/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 25/04/2026 | 4th | 13/8 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |
| 14/06/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 04/07/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 24/07/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |