6
House Alert
6yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 54
Charles Town · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength44%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Charles Town | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Charles Town | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Charles Town | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-05-17 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-20 | Charles Town | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength34%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 09/08/2025 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 06/09/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 20/11/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 25/04/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 17/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 05/06/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 28/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 17/07/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |