3
Modest Kay
4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 50
Charles Town · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
30%
Place Prob
28%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength42%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Charles Town | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Charles Town | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Charles Town | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Charles Town | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 8
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength54%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/02/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 21/03/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 28/03/2026 | 2nd | 5/6 | 96% | 86% | -0.10 |
| 17/04/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 25/04/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 16/05/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 30/05/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 17% | -0.54 |
| 18/06/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 01/08/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |