8
Moonlight Mistress
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 61
Charles Town · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Charles Town | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-20 | Charles Town | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-05 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength55%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 09/01/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 22/02/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 05/03/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 60% | -0.27 |
| 20/03/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 11/04/2026 | 3rd | 1/1 | 95% | 71% | -0.23 |
| 18/04/2026 | 3rd | 5/6 | 96% | 75% | -0.21 |
| 01/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 83% | -0.10 |
| 16/05/2026 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |