5
Palacio
6yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 53
Charles Town · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-28 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Charles Town | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Charles Town | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Charles Town | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-02-27 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-20 | Charles Town | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength48%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/11/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 29/11/2025 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 09/01/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 20/02/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/02/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 28/03/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 24/04/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 30/05/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 28/06/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |