4
Arnay Le Duc
4yo Gelding · 9-4
Clairefontaine · Prix Des Glaieuls Claiming Stakes · 1m 3f 204y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/6
Win Prob
67%
Place Prob
47%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength30%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Compiegne | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Compiegne | 2 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Compiegne | 3 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-13 | Fontainebleau | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-08-31 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 7th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength100%
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 1st of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/06/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 18/07/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 75% | +0.14 |
| 07/08/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 31/08/2025 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 13/11/2025 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |
| 25/04/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 09/05/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 22/05/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 10/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/6 | 96% | 86% | -0.10 |