4
Alpha Spirit
6yo Gelding · 9-3
Clairefontaine · Prix Des Paturages Handicap · 1m 208y
#1
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
97%
Place Prob
73%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Saint-Malo | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Clairefontaine | 4 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-23 | Dieppe | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Nantes | 4 | 12th | 13th | −1 |
| 2026-04-14 | Nantes | 4 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2025-11-29 | Pornichet | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 16
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength87%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 15/10/2025 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 89% | -0.03 |
| 01/11/2025 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 60% | -0.28 |
| 29/11/2025 | 9th | 10/3 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 14/04/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 30% | -0.41 |
| 11/05/2026 | 12th | 12/1 | 37% | 27% | -0.10 |
| 23/06/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 86% | +0.02 |
| 11/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |
| 22/07/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |