14
Joao
9yo Gelding · 8-9
Clairefontaine · Prix Des Paturages Handicap · 1m 208y
#7
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 11.7 /10 (raw 7.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | Vittel | 4 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-06-19 | Chantilly | 3 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Compiegne | 4 | 12th | 13th | −1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Compiegne | 4 | 11th | 12th | −1 |
| 2026-04-14 | Chantilly | 4 | 15th | 16th | −1 |
| 2026-03-20 | Le Croise-Laroche | 4 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 16
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength40%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |
| 03/11/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 38% | -0.39 |
| 15/11/2025 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 58% | -0.13 |
| 20/03/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 14/04/2026 | 15th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/05/2026 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 25/05/2026 | 12th | 18/1 | 5% | 21% | +0.16 |
| 19/06/2026 | 11th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 19/07/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |