16
Not So Silly
8yo Gelding · 8-0
Clairefontaine · Prix Des Paturages Handicap · 1m 208y
#13
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 10.0 /10 (raw 8.2)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Vichy | 4 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Clairefontaine | 4 | 12th | 13th | −1 |
| 2026-04-07 | Deauville | 4 | 13th | 14th | −1 |
| 2026-03-23 | Chantilly | 3 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-03 | Chantilly | 4 | 13th | 14th | −1 |
| 2025-12-30 | Deauville | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 16
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength37%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 14th of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 79% | -0.04 |
| 06/11/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 93% | +0.09 |
| 03/12/2025 | 12th | 4/1 | 79% | 21% | -0.58 |
| 30/12/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 77% | +0.08 |
| 03/03/2026 | 13th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/03/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 07/04/2026 | 13th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 11/07/2026 | 12th | 100/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 23/07/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |