3
Mila Candy
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 83
Colonial Downs · Race 1 - Allowance · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
3/10
Win Prob
53%
Place Prob
45%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-03-13 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-06 | Churchill Downs | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-09-24 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength92%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/06/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 19/07/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 30/08/2025 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 24/09/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 06/11/2025 | 10th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 13/03/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 09/05/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 06/06/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 19/07/2026 | 1st | 3/10 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |