IvyArcIvyArc
6

Militia

4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 86

Colonial Downs · Race 1 - Allowance · 6f

#5

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Gulfstream 02/05/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 77 · 5f Fas 118 · below its mark02/05/2025 · OR 77 par2/05C6OR 77C6 @ Gulfstream 29/05/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 84 · 5f110y Fas 118 · below its mark29/05/2025 · OR 84 parC9 @ Gulfstream 21/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 82 · 6f Fas 122 · beat its mark21/06/2025 · OR 82 par21/06C9OR 82C7 @ Colonial Downs 31/07/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 89 · 5f110y Fm 118 · below its mark31/07/2025 · OR 89 parC7 @ Delaware Park 04/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 87 · 5f110y 119 · beat its mark04/09/2025 · OR 87 par4/09C7OR 87C6 @ Gulfstream 12/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 90 · 7f Fas 118 · below its mark12/10/2025 · OR 90 parC6 @ Gulfstream 08/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 91 · 6f Fas 118 · beat its mark08/11/2025 · OR 91 par8/11C6OR 91C6 @ Gulfstream 20/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 94 · 6f Fas 120 · below its mark20/12/2025 · OR 94 parC6 @ Gulfstream 18/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 86 · 6f110y Fas 125 · below its mark18/07/2026 · OR 86 par18/07C6OR 86projClass-projected finish: 6th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-18Gulfstream?8th9th−1
2025-12-20Gulfstream?3rd4th−1
2025-11-08Gulfstream?1st2nd−1
2025-10-12Gulfstream?3rd4th−1
2025-09-04Delaware Park?1st3rd−2
2025-07-31Colonial Downs?7th9th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0531/078/1118/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength37%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/05/20254th9/153%57%+0.05
29/05/20254th14/126%63%+0.36
21/06/20251st11/893%100%+0.07
31/07/20257th14/126%0%-0.26
04/09/20251st11/486%100%+0.14
12/10/20253rd3/184%75%-0.09
08/11/20251st3/184%100%+0.16
20/12/20253rd11/271%60%-0.11
18/07/20268th4/179%0%-0.79