11
Grand Liam
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 74
Colonial Downs · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 1f
#3
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
13%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-07 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-13 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-06 | Colonial Downs | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-08-13 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 14
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength34%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 78% | -0.05 |
| 26/04/2025 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 43% | -0.23 |
| 30/07/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 91% | +0.28 |
| 13/08/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 91% | +0.01 |
| 06/09/2025 | 10th | 13/8 | 91% | 18% | -0.73 |
| 13/12/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 89% | +0.10 |
| 13/03/2026 | 3rd | 6/5 | 94% | 78% | -0.16 |
| 28/03/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 73% | -0.14 |
| 07/06/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |