Rule Seventy Six
4yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 88
Colonial Downs · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 1f
#1
Rank
Odds
7/4
Win Prob
59%
Place Prob
33%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 5.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-08-31 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2025-06-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2025-05-11 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/05/2025 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 28/06/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 31/08/2025 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 07/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/6 | 96% | 83% | -0.12 |
| 12/07/2026 | 5th | 7/4 | 91% | 43% | -0.48 |