8
Shirley's Boyz
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 76
Colonial Downs · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 1f
#8
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Keeneland | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Turfway Park | ? | 9th | 6th | +3 |
| 2026-03-07 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Turfway Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-01-03 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-27 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength38%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 03/01/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 73% | -0.06 |
| 14/02/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 55% | +0.02 |
| 07/03/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 78% | -0.09 |
| 29/03/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 12/04/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |