10
Silver Punch
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 70
Colonial Downs · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 1f
#14
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 6.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-11 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-05 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-01-21 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-07 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 14
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 14th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 13/08/2025 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 13/09/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 07/01/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 44% | -0.19 |
| 21/01/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 05/02/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 11/03/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 01/05/2026 | 5th | 13/8 | 91% | 33% | -0.58 |
| 23/07/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |