The Fed's Plot
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 82
Colonial Downs · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 1f
#2
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
13%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 5.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Turfway Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-06-24 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2025-06-10 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09/2024 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 12/10/2024 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 11/05/2025 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 10/06/2025 | 5th | 6/4 | 92% | 20% | -0.72 |
| 24/06/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 80% | -0.10 |
| 13/03/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 56% | -0.21 |
| 12/05/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 73% | -0.11 |
| 04/06/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 25/06/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 90% | +0.01 |