7
Vignon Manor
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 72
Colonial Downs · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 1f
#10
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Penn National | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Laurel Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 14
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength29%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 11th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 02/11/2025 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 78% | -0.13 |
| 09/11/2025 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 10% | -0.16 |
| 19/04/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 44% | -0.24 |
| 09/05/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 25% | -0.54 |
| 22/05/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 06/06/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 63% | +0.36 |
| 18/06/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 18/07/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |