Costa Amalfitana
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 80
Colonial Downs · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 6 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-04-19 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-03-21 | Gulfstream | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2026-01-16 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2025-12-24 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2025-10-05 | Keeneland | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 28/08/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 11/09/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 80% | +0.64 |
| 05/10/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 24/12/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 16/01/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 21/03/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 19/04/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 20% | -0.38 |
| 26/07/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |