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Double Airo

4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 79

Colonial Downs · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f

#5

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼2
Strength63%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.9 /10 (raw 3.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: +2.2
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Laurel Park 18/04/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 80 · 5f110y Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/04/2025 · OR 80 par18/04C6OR 80C5 @ Presque Isle Downs 20/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 88 · 5f110y 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/05/2025 · OR 88 parC5 @ Penn National 15/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 86 · 6f Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/08/2025 · OR 86 par15/08C5OR 86C5 @ Penn National 30/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 82 · 6f 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/10/2025 · OR 82 parC6 @ Laurel Park 04/02/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 78 · 7f Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark04/02/2026 · OR 78 par4/02C6OR 78C6 @ Charles Town 20/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 78 · 4f110y Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/03/2026 · OR 78 parC6 @ Laurel Park 12/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 83 · 6f Fas 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/04/2026 · OR 83 par12/04C6OR 83C5 @ Charles Town 02/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 82 · 4f110y Fas 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 82 parC6 @ Colonial Downs 24/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 89 · 5f110y Gd 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark24/07/2026 · OR 89 par24/07C6OR 89projClass-projected finish: 6th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-24Colonial Downs?7th5th+2
2026-05-02Charles Town?2nd-1th+3
2026-04-12Laurel Park?1st-1th+2
2026-03-20Charles Town?1st-1th+2
2026-02-04Laurel Park?9th7th+2
2025-10-30Penn National?1st-2th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0430/1012/0424/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength4%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/04/20251st9/276%100%+0.24
20/05/20252nd2/189%80%-0.09
15/08/20253rd7/491%71%-0.19
30/10/20251st9/276%100%+0.24
04/02/20269th50/10%20%+0.20
20/03/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
12/04/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
02/05/20262nd9/488%75%-0.13
24/07/20267th20/10%0%0.00