Spencerian
6yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 91
Colonial Downs · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 3.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-06-12 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-05-01 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-02-22 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-01-17 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 1st | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/2025 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 43% | -0.44 |
| 11/10/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 64% | +0.27 |
| 28/11/2025 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 20% | -0.64 |
| 17/01/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 22/02/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 25% | -0.41 |
| 12/04/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 01/05/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 12/06/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 27/06/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |