6
Aqua Blaze
3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 60
Colonial Downs · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
10%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-02-21 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-17 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2025-12-19 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 12
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/12/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 17/01/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 43% | -0.15 |
| 21/02/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 20/06/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 25% | -0.36 |