1
Blumoon Fire
3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 64
Colonial Downs · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#11
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-01-25 | Fair Grounds | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 12
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength72%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/01/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 05/06/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 17% | -0.62 |
| 26/06/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |