4
Hot Cocoa
3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 71
Colonial Downs · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Colonial Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Colonial Downs | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-30 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-02 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-10 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-18 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 12
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength23%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10/2025 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 38% | -0.28 |
| 24/10/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 22/11/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 78% | +0.04 |
| 18/12/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 10/01/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 78% | +0.12 |
| 02/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 30/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 67% | -0.28 |
| 10/07/2026 | 9th | 5/2 | 87% | 27% | -0.60 |
| 25/07/2026 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 22% | -0.44 |