7
Maggies Brew
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 63
Colonial Downs · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#10
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Colonial Downs | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-15 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength87%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 31/12/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 17/01/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 20% | -0.67 |
| 28/02/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |
| 15/03/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 10/04/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 26/04/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 26/06/2026 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 16/07/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |