11
Runtown
3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 70
Colonial Downs · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
28%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-23 | Gulfstream | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-03-12 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2026-02-06 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 12
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength34%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/12/2025 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 07/01/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 86% | +0.49 |
| 18/01/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 06/02/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 12/03/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 83% | +0.68 |
| 23/04/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 22/05/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 19/06/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 80% | -0.09 |
| 11/07/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 43% | -0.18 |