Scat

3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 52

Colonial Downs · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

17%

Place Prob

15%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▼2

Strength66%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.0

Today:

Class gap: +1.5

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-22	Colonial Downs	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-06-28	Colonial Downs	?	6th	3rd	+3	7.0
2025-09-12	Colonial Downs	?	7th	5th	+2	5.4

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish1st of 12

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▲

Strength89%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
12/09/2025	7th	14/1	26%	14%	-0.12
28/06/2026	6th	16/1	16%	0%	-0.16
22/07/2026	2nd	3/1	84%	86%	+0.02