9
Bourbon Dream
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 87
Colonial Downs · Race 5 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 1f
#1
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
21%
Place Prob
24%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength6%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 02/05/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 30/05/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 14% | -0.52 |
| 16/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |