1
C J Star
3yo Colt · 8-6 · OR 98
Colonial Downs · Race 5 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 1f
#3
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
12%
Place Prob
18%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | Saratoga | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-20 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/12/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 64% | +0.11 |
| 17/04/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 83% | +0.15 |
| 11/06/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 71% | -0.21 |
| 09/07/2026 | 10th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |