5
Holyrood
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 84
Colonial Downs · Race 5 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 1f
#6
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-03-12 | Turfway Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-03 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2025-11-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2025-10-01 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 11th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength77%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 13/11/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 03/01/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 91% | +0.38 |
| 12/03/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 29/04/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |