7
Joy Division
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 89
Colonial Downs · Race 5 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 1f
#2
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
64%
Place Prob
42%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-06-12 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2025-10-18 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 44% | -0.08 |
| 17/05/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 17% | -0.41 |
| 12/06/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 71% | +0.45 |
| 12/07/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 86% | -0.04 |