2
Payton's Hammer
3yo Colt · 8-6 · OR 91
Colonial Downs · Race 5 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 1f
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-21 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Keeneland | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-07 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/03/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |
| 04/04/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 21/04/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 17/06/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 05/07/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 86% | +0.28 |