6
Still Sober
3yo Colt · 8-6 · OR 87
Colonial Downs · Race 5 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 1f
#8
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Keeneland | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-12-22 | Turfway Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-09 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Keeneland | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength28%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 04/08/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |
| 28/08/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 25/10/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 09/11/2025 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 22/12/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 11/04/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 26/04/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 06/06/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |