Bonita Breeze
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 90
Colonial Downs · Race 6 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
7/4
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-03-20 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-02-25 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-02-01 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-01-09 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |
| 21/08/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 13/09/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 86% | +0.49 |
| 09/01/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 01/02/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 22% | -0.04 |
| 25/02/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 20/03/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 17% | -0.60 |
| 16/05/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |