8
Doesn'thurttoflirt
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 85
Colonial Downs · Race 6 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#9
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength73%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.9 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: +2.4
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2025-11-15 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2025-09-13 | Colonial Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-08-16 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2025-07-23 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2025-06-19 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength71%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/11/2024 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 64% | +0.48 |
| 28/12/2024 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 24/05/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 19/06/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 23/07/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 16/08/2025 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 43% | -0.40 |
| 13/09/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 15/11/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 78% | +0.51 |
| 06/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 33% | -0.55 |